Signs you need this
- Experiments are run but results are contested or reversed later.
- Forecasts are point estimates with no uncertainty attached.
- Retention or conversion trends are reported without understanding why.
Overview
Not every question needs machine learning. Many need a well-designed experiment, a correctly specified model and an honest confidence interval. Statistical rigour is what separates a persuasive chart from a reliable conclusion.
We build statistical tooling and analyses for product, finance and operations teams: A/B testing frameworks, survival and cohort models, forecasting with ARIMA and Prophet, and reproducible reporting.
How this differs from Data Science Solutions: Statistics answers 'is this true and how sure are we'; Data Science answers 'what will happen next' with deployed models.
What we deliver
- Experimentation frameworksA/B and multi-armed testing with power analysis, sequential testing and guardrail metrics.
- Hypothesis testingCorrect tests for your data, with effect sizes and practical significance, not just p-values.
- Survival & cohort analysisTime-to-event models for retention, conversion and failure.
- ForecastingARIMA, Prophet and state-space models with prediction intervals.
- Causal inferenceUplift modelling, difference-in-differences and matching for observational data.
- Reproducible reportsNotebook-to-report pipelines that regenerate with fresh data.
Where it fits
Product experimentationRun trustworthy experiments and stop shipping changes that only look better.
Retention analysisUnderstand when and why customers churn with survival curves and cohorts.
Financial forecastingRevenue and cash-flow projections with intervals leadership can plan around.
Operational qualityControl charts and anomaly thresholds for processes and services.
Technology we use
Chosen per project. We are vendor-neutral and will recommend what fits your constraints.
PythonRSciPyStatsmodelsProphetlifelinesPyMCPandasJupyterQuarto
How we work
Question definition
Turn the business question into a testable statistical statement.
Design
Sampling, power, controls and the analysis plan agreed before data is collected.
Analysis
Execute, check assumptions, quantify uncertainty.
Communicate
Plain-language findings with the caveats that matter.
Typical first engagement
A methodology review of one live question, delivering a corrected analysis, a reusable template and a plain-language summary.
Common questions
Can you audit an analysis someone else produced?
Yes. Independent review of methodology and conclusions is a common engagement.
Which tools do you use?
Python and R with standard statistical libraries; results are reproducible from the raw data.
Will the output be readable by non-statisticians?
That is the goal. Every analysis ends in a plain-language summary and a decision recommendation.